Happy Halloween!
Happy Halloween!
Here's a scary story.
The 2005 Statistics Canada report says that a man today will live to age 78 and women will live to age 83. Married men tend to live longer than unmarried men. Thanks ladies! So men, be good to your wife.
Not only that, we are also living longer and may actually live past 100 years old in the next 30 years.
Anyway, imagine yourself being age 65 today. Your $500,000 RRSP last year is now down to $250,000 because of the market drop. During that drop in the market, you panicked and moved all your RRSP into a GIC. So you just realized all the losses and since the market recovered somewhat since March, you did not participate in the recovery.
Assuming you live on $25,000 a year, would your $250,000 last? That means there will be 3 years for men and 8 years for women with no other source of income other than the $830 a month of CPP if you qualify for the whole amount and maybe some OAS.
What if your income needs is $30,000 a year? Can you imagine yourself depending on the government for financial support? Can your $30,000 a year retirement income pay for your medical needs or home repairs in the future?
Can you afford to drive when gas eventually hits $2 or more a litre?
Scary thought isn't it?
They say 50 years old is the new 40, 40 is the new 30, 30 is the new 20. What happens if you're 10?
Fact is, people are starting later to save for retirement.
If you started working at 20 and retired at 60, you worked 40 years. But you are expected to live to age 80. So you will be spending 20 years in retirement. Did you save enough in your 40 years of work to live on for the next 20 years?
If your retirement savings is not on track to support your retirement, maybe you should start looking to increase your retirement savings. If you are worried about the market dropping, there are investments that guarantee your principal at maturity.
There are also new Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit from insurance companies that acts like an individual pension plans that guarantees you will never receive less than a certain amount for life and they start with as little as $25,000 to start the plan.
If you and your friends or family are worried about your retirement, give me a call. I'll be happy to do an evaluation for you.
========================
I was in a seminar yesterday with Michael Levy who is a well known speaker about finance and currencies and has been featured in Global and CTV News. He presented an economic overview of the US and Canadian markets.
Here's the summary.
The bad news is, he thinks the US will be in a recession for a long time. The US is currently in a secular bear market. meaning, the whole US investment horizon is in a bear market. There will be some bull market moves, but it would be a long time before the US gets out of the "real" bear market.
While China and the UN is talking about having a global currency and detach from the US dollar. He doesn't see that happening anytime soon. At least not in the next 5 years. Why? China is too dependent on the US. If they sell all their US Treasuries and makes the US Dollar go into a free fall. China will only hurt their exports.
While the US says they want a strong US Dollar, that's probably not going to happen since they want a weaker US Dollar so their exports will be cheaper. Also, a weaker US Dollar means their debt repayments to US, Japan, Australia and other countries will be cheaper. Since these are paid in US Dollars and not in the currency of the said countries.
China is doubling their spending on their military every year. This is not to invade any country but historically, the currency of the country with the biggest army becomes the reserve currency. This happened in Roman times, Spanish times, during the British Empire and the US. We may eventually have the Yuan as the reserve currency. But that would be 15 to 20 years from now. It won't be happening soon.
By 2050, there will be 42% more oil consumption than today. 3 billion people will be using oil. There is no more easy oil to drill. While we won't run out of oil, it will be harder, deeper and more expensive to get oil. Don't be surprised if oil hits $200 a barrel. That would be around $3 to $4/litre, maybe more.
While Canada may say they want the Canadian Dollar to be at 80 cents to the US Dollar. Canada cannot stop market forces. the Canadian government always say that we need the Canadian Dollar to be at 80 cents so we can be competitive in our manufacturing. But manufacturing is a dying industry and the exchange rate is only one of the factors that influences export prices.
In the 1970s, the Canadian Dollar was at par and more compared to the US Dollar. Canada survived. Manufacturing died, but Canada found other means to make income. Canada is in a better position now because even if manufacturing died, Canada has oil and other resources to export which will be in great demand.
We may see a weakening of the Canadian Dollar in the meantime, but he sees the Canadian Dollar to be around $1.25 in the next 5 to 10 years. So convert your US Dollar when the Canadian Dollar is cheap.
Gold is another story, gold prices is high now because the US Dollar is losing value. But in terms of Canadian Dollar, gold is cheap because the Canadian Dollar is so strong.
Here's some good news.
On Oct 9, 2009, Canada created 31,000 new jobs. The majority of those jobs are in BC, particularly, the lower mainland. The Provinces that is going to get better is BC, AB, SK and MB. These Provinces are the epicenter of growth in Canada. Ontario isn't part of it because it relies heavily on manufacturing.
As of yesterday, there have been 109 bank failures in the US. In Canada...zero, none, zilch.
Housing prices is strong in Canada, specially in Vancouver. Prices are crazy, but Canadian banks have been very conservative in their lending practices. Meaning, you cannot have zero downpayment when you buy a house and you have to have an income. There are no more 40 year mortgages available and I haven't seen any promotion for Prime minus mortgages.
========================
Here's an observation that I learned from Robert Prechter who popularized the Elliot Wave Theory. Some of these are just my assumptions.
Did you know that during a recession or a depression, the top grossing movies are usually horror/suspense movies? There's also a lot more horror/suspense movies in times of depression, especially at the bottom. Possibly due to Hollywood mirroring the moods of the population.
During the great depression of 1929 to late 1930s. The top grossing movie were Frankenstein (1931) and King Kong (1933).
During the recession between 1970 to 1980. The top films were The Exorcist (1973), Jaws (1975), Jaws 2 (1978). The bottom of the market during that decade was Sept 23, 1974. When the market started recovering or when the population has had enough of the gloom and doom, the top movies were Saturday Night Fever (1977), Star Wars (1977), Grease (1978), Superman (1978) and Moonraker (1979).
During the 1980s boom with Reaganomics, no horror or suspense movies were top grossers. We have ET, Return of the Jedi, The Empire Strikes Back, Indiana Jones, Rain Man, Raiders of the Lost Ark, Batman, Back to The Future, Who Framed Roger Rabbit and Top Gun.
How about as recent as the 1990s?
From 1991 to 1997 there were no horror/suspense movies that were top grossers. Interestingly enough, during the Asian Crisis, the top movie was Armageddon (1998) and the Sixth Sense in (1999).
I haven't seen the same result in this decade yet. But you do see lot more horror movies coming out even though they were not top grossers. But if we go by the gross earnings of the Saw movie franchise, we can see it grossed $55M in the US in 2004 and $87M in 2005 for Saw II. If you remember, 2000 was when the Internet bubble popped and bottomed on Oct 21, 2002. The market went up from there.
So in 2006 when the market was in full recovery, Saw III only made $80M. Still high, but in 2007 when the good times were back again, Saw IV only made $63M, Saw V in 2008 made $56M and Saw VI made $21M in 2009 so far. It only opened on Oct 23, 2009 so it's still early to tell.
Let's see what the upcoming horror movies in November. The Box, Endgame and Fourth Kind on Nov 6. The big one they're promoting is 2012 about the end of the world which is coming out Nov 13 (Friday the 13th by the way).
There no other horror movies to coming out after mid-November since nobody probably wants to be depressed during the holiday season.
It would be interesting to see how much money these movies make though.
Interesting bit of info isn't it?
Here's a scary story.
The 2005 Statistics Canada report says that a man today will live to age 78 and women will live to age 83. Married men tend to live longer than unmarried men. Thanks ladies! So men, be good to your wife.
Not only that, we are also living longer and may actually live past 100 years old in the next 30 years.
Anyway, imagine yourself being age 65 today. Your $500,000 RRSP last year is now down to $250,000 because of the market drop. During that drop in the market, you panicked and moved all your RRSP into a GIC. So you just realized all the losses and since the market recovered somewhat since March, you did not participate in the recovery.
Assuming you live on $25,000 a year, would your $250,000 last? That means there will be 3 years for men and 8 years for women with no other source of income other than the $830 a month of CPP if you qualify for the whole amount and maybe some OAS.
What if your income needs is $30,000 a year? Can you imagine yourself depending on the government for financial support? Can your $30,000 a year retirement income pay for your medical needs or home repairs in the future?
Can you afford to drive when gas eventually hits $2 or more a litre?
Scary thought isn't it?
They say 50 years old is the new 40, 40 is the new 30, 30 is the new 20. What happens if you're 10?
Fact is, people are starting later to save for retirement.
If you started working at 20 and retired at 60, you worked 40 years. But you are expected to live to age 80. So you will be spending 20 years in retirement. Did you save enough in your 40 years of work to live on for the next 20 years?
If your retirement savings is not on track to support your retirement, maybe you should start looking to increase your retirement savings. If you are worried about the market dropping, there are investments that guarantee your principal at maturity.
There are also new Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit from insurance companies that acts like an individual pension plans that guarantees you will never receive less than a certain amount for life and they start with as little as $25,000 to start the plan.
If you and your friends or family are worried about your retirement, give me a call. I'll be happy to do an evaluation for you.
========================
I was in a seminar yesterday with Michael Levy who is a well known speaker about finance and currencies and has been featured in Global and CTV News. He presented an economic overview of the US and Canadian markets.
Here's the summary.
The bad news is, he thinks the US will be in a recession for a long time. The US is currently in a secular bear market. meaning, the whole US investment horizon is in a bear market. There will be some bull market moves, but it would be a long time before the US gets out of the "real" bear market.
While China and the UN is talking about having a global currency and detach from the US dollar. He doesn't see that happening anytime soon. At least not in the next 5 years. Why? China is too dependent on the US. If they sell all their US Treasuries and makes the US Dollar go into a free fall. China will only hurt their exports.
While the US says they want a strong US Dollar, that's probably not going to happen since they want a weaker US Dollar so their exports will be cheaper. Also, a weaker US Dollar means their debt repayments to US, Japan, Australia and other countries will be cheaper. Since these are paid in US Dollars and not in the currency of the said countries.
China is doubling their spending on their military every year. This is not to invade any country but historically, the currency of the country with the biggest army becomes the reserve currency. This happened in Roman times, Spanish times, during the British Empire and the US. We may eventually have the Yuan as the reserve currency. But that would be 15 to 20 years from now. It won't be happening soon.
By 2050, there will be 42% more oil consumption than today. 3 billion people will be using oil. There is no more easy oil to drill. While we won't run out of oil, it will be harder, deeper and more expensive to get oil. Don't be surprised if oil hits $200 a barrel. That would be around $3 to $4/litre, maybe more.
While Canada may say they want the Canadian Dollar to be at 80 cents to the US Dollar. Canada cannot stop market forces. the Canadian government always say that we need the Canadian Dollar to be at 80 cents so we can be competitive in our manufacturing. But manufacturing is a dying industry and the exchange rate is only one of the factors that influences export prices.
In the 1970s, the Canadian Dollar was at par and more compared to the US Dollar. Canada survived. Manufacturing died, but Canada found other means to make income. Canada is in a better position now because even if manufacturing died, Canada has oil and other resources to export which will be in great demand.
We may see a weakening of the Canadian Dollar in the meantime, but he sees the Canadian Dollar to be around $1.25 in the next 5 to 10 years. So convert your US Dollar when the Canadian Dollar is cheap.
Gold is another story, gold prices is high now because the US Dollar is losing value. But in terms of Canadian Dollar, gold is cheap because the Canadian Dollar is so strong.
Here's some good news.
On Oct 9, 2009, Canada created 31,000 new jobs. The majority of those jobs are in BC, particularly, the lower mainland. The Provinces that is going to get better is BC, AB, SK and MB. These Provinces are the epicenter of growth in Canada. Ontario isn't part of it because it relies heavily on manufacturing.
As of yesterday, there have been 109 bank failures in the US. In Canada...zero, none, zilch.
Housing prices is strong in Canada, specially in Vancouver. Prices are crazy, but Canadian banks have been very conservative in their lending practices. Meaning, you cannot have zero downpayment when you buy a house and you have to have an income. There are no more 40 year mortgages available and I haven't seen any promotion for Prime minus mortgages.
========================
Here's an observation that I learned from Robert Prechter who popularized the Elliot Wave Theory. Some of these are just my assumptions.
Did you know that during a recession or a depression, the top grossing movies are usually horror/suspense movies? There's also a lot more horror/suspense movies in times of depression, especially at the bottom. Possibly due to Hollywood mirroring the moods of the population.
During the great depression of 1929 to late 1930s. The top grossing movie were Frankenstein (1931) and King Kong (1933).
During the recession between 1970 to 1980. The top films were The Exorcist (1973), Jaws (1975), Jaws 2 (1978). The bottom of the market during that decade was Sept 23, 1974. When the market started recovering or when the population has had enough of the gloom and doom, the top movies were Saturday Night Fever (1977), Star Wars (1977), Grease (1978), Superman (1978) and Moonraker (1979).
During the 1980s boom with Reaganomics, no horror or suspense movies were top grossers. We have ET, Return of the Jedi, The Empire Strikes Back, Indiana Jones, Rain Man, Raiders of the Lost Ark, Batman, Back to The Future, Who Framed Roger Rabbit and Top Gun.
How about as recent as the 1990s?
From 1991 to 1997 there were no horror/suspense movies that were top grossers. Interestingly enough, during the Asian Crisis, the top movie was Armageddon (1998) and the Sixth Sense in (1999).
I haven't seen the same result in this decade yet. But you do see lot more horror movies coming out even though they were not top grossers. But if we go by the gross earnings of the Saw movie franchise, we can see it grossed $55M in the US in 2004 and $87M in 2005 for Saw II. If you remember, 2000 was when the Internet bubble popped and bottomed on Oct 21, 2002. The market went up from there.
So in 2006 when the market was in full recovery, Saw III only made $80M. Still high, but in 2007 when the good times were back again, Saw IV only made $63M, Saw V in 2008 made $56M and Saw VI made $21M in 2009 so far. It only opened on Oct 23, 2009 so it's still early to tell.
Let's see what the upcoming horror movies in November. The Box, Endgame and Fourth Kind on Nov 6. The big one they're promoting is 2012 about the end of the world which is coming out Nov 13 (Friday the 13th by the way).
There no other horror movies to coming out after mid-November since nobody probably wants to be depressed during the holiday season.
It would be interesting to see how much money these movies make though.
Interesting bit of info isn't it?
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