09 February 2017

Trump Tweets


President Donald Trump has been shaking up the whole establishment, issuing travel bans, repealing the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare), tweeting about industries like defense and auto manufacturers.

When a President of a country calls out companies or industries, the stock market reacts to it. When Trump tweeted about the F-35 jet being overpriced, six of the 28 stocks in aerospace and defense industry dropped 2% or more.

When he tweeted about car manufacturers building plants in Mexico saying they should build the plants in the US or pay big border tax, Toyota’s stock loses $1.2B in value 5 minutes after the tweet came out.

When Trump issued the immigration travel ban on a weekend. Airline stocks in the US that has international destinations lost $4.9 billion in market value.

When Trump signed an executive order to review or end the financial regulations set up during the Obama administration which was enacted after the 2008 financial crisis that was meant to protect consumers, bank stocks went up.

With all that’s been happening with the market, you would think the market is currently extremely volatile. However, the CBOE volatility index is actually showing that the market volatility is at multi-year lows.

It’s interesting to see how the market reacts or shall we say overreact to things. It could be the Greek default, Brexit or Trump Tweets. But it’s always the same case, the market reacts to immediate or short term news.

Take a look at this chart.



As you can see from this chart, in the short term, markets go up and down…a lot. But in the long term, the trend is up. Why is that? That’s because over the long term, we become more productive, we create new industries, new technologies and inflation causes the market value to go up.

The problem most investors have is they follow the crowd instead of staying with their plan. Remember 2008, during the financial crisis when everyone taught the world is going to collapse? Everybody was pulling their money out of the stock market. Those who did and didn’t put their money back in by 2009 would have lost out on the biggest gains they would have had since.

The low point of the Canadian market which is the S&P/TSX was around Feb 9, 2009. The index was at 8,123. This was the low point coming from a high of 14,714.70 in April 30, 2008. The index then proceeded to collapse for the next 11 months to a low of 8,123, a decline of -44.80%. If you suddenly saw your investment go down by half, I would panic too.

However, if you had stayed invested or put in new money around Feb 9, 2009. Up to the closing price today of 15,617.30 on the S&P/TSX Index, you would have made 92.26% return in 8 years. That’s a compounded rate of return of 8.51% per year. Not bad for staying doing nothing but waiting out the market.

Most investors only started to go back to the market around 2011 and 2012 after the market already made the most gains from 2009-2011. That’s when people started to feel the financial collapse was over. As is always the case, people’s sentiment about the market is always too late and wrong.

10 November 2016

Trump Won, Now What?

The unimaginable has happened. America has voted the most unlikely candidate for President and a lot of people got caught by surprise.

However, I wasn’t as surprised that Trump won. In fact, I was half expecting it. For all of Trump’s bluster, I already had a feeling he will have a good showing in the polls, maybe a close race with Clinton if Clinton did win. But when it was shown he was leading in the early polls, I knew he was going to win.

What surprised me was that the whole country voted Republican. The US congress and senate is now controlled by the Republicans. Last time, congress was controlled by the Republicans but the senate was controlled by the Democrats. This time around, the Democrats were completely demolished.

Why? Historically, when the economy is doing badly, the incumbent party almost always losses. Why? Because the people wants change, so the kick out the current party and install a new party to see if they can make things better. If the economy is doing well, nobody wants to rock the boat.

So, how can I be sure that Trump would win? Well, there’s an analysis by Strategas Research Partners LLC that the performance of the S&P500 Index has signalled the outcome of every presidential election since 1984. In the three months prior to the vote, if the S&P 500 is up, the incumbent party 86% of the time since 1928.

But, the S&P500 was down 3.6% since August 8 up to one week from the vote. The stock market was basically showing that they don’t want Clinton to win.

Even before that, I had a feeling Trump will have a strong showing in the polls when I went for a road trip to Yellowstone National Park. Our route took us from BC to Washington State, through Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana.

What I saw as we passed through the small towns from Idaho, Wyoming and Montana was the “Trump – Make America Great Again” banner. However, I never saw one Clinton banner anywhere during the trip. And these small towns is Middle America. The blue-collar, middle-class, small town American who are strong voters. And behold, those States all voted Trump. Washington State and Oregon voted Clinton.

This is even when all the media went against Trump and was basically all for Clinton. So don’t believe everything you hear and read in the media.

Market reaction

The market reaction was totally unexpected as well. Most people were predicting that the stock market will go down when Trump is voted. Well, the S&P Futures market was down the night of the election when Trump was leading. But the next day, the Dow Jones was up over 200 points and it is up over 200 points today.

Why is that? Why did the market react differently from what people predicted?

The main reason is, the stock market doesn’t like uncertainty. Leading up to the election, it was a very close race. Both candidates have very different economic agendas so investors were not sure how to invest. That’s why the market was trending sideways and even down leading up to the election.

If you remember, the stock market bottomed out in mid-February this year and rallied up until mid-April. Then it traded sideways, went down a bit in July then up and sideways again and peaked in mid-August.

However, in the last 3 months before the vote, the market went down 3.6% which, as predicted, made Trump the winner.

But now that the market knows that Trump is going to be the President, investors now know how to position their portfolios to take advantage of his win based on what he promised during his campaign.

From what I hear from portfolio managers, they repositioning their portfolios for his promise of infrastructure funding and deregulation in American industries.

So how should you reposition your portfolio? Two words, “you don’t”. If you’re a long term investor, these short term fluctuations doesn’t bother you. Markets go up, markets go down, but over the long term, the market goes up. If you’re well diversified, you have already positioned your portfolio a long time ago to take advantage of any market situation.

What you should be doing now is getting ready to pounce should the market drop big time. This means, things are a bargain and you should be investing more to take advantage of the sale.

19 February 2016

Roller Coaster Market and Debts

Roller Coaster Ride

Up…down...up…down…down…down…down…up…up!...up!

Do you sometimes feel the stock market is like riding a roller coaster? Because that’s exactly how it felt like the last few weeks. It’s like how you feel during the Christmas season. All the highs of the season, the Christmas jingles, the lights, the cold winter air, the parties, everyone greeting Merry Christmas to each other. Then after Christmas, comes the crash, the quietness and the realization that you have a ton of credit card bills to pay when it arrives in January.

It’s certainly has been an interesting January we’ve had so far with the stock market. The S&P500 was down 5.07% for the month of January. It came crashing down until the 3rd week of January then started going up until the end of the month. Then suddenly, it started going down again until it hit bottom on February 11 and is now almost back to the high of February 1, 2016.

I normally write a something to my clients whenever I see s big market drop. However, I sort of hesitated writing this because every time I sit down to write it, the market has turned (either up or down). This kind of market reminds me of something I read from one of Warren Buffett’s letter for shareholders. It goes like this.

“Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.

Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market's quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.

Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn't mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.”

It take a lot to ignore the news on the media about the stock market. But most successful long term investors ignore the short term noise and concentrate on their long term goals. Another way investors are successful is making sure they have the proper asset allocation in their portfolio. This means they have the proper mix of stocks and bonds.

One thing I think to most of my client’s portfolio is to reduce the volatility.

Volatility is defined as the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of returns. That’s quite a mouthful isn’t it? But I guess the simplest way to explain volatility is how much the price goes up and down over a period of time.
For example, we have ABC Corp. whose stock price over 1 year may range from +30% to -40% and for XYZ Ltd, it may range from +10% to -5%.

So in this situation, ABC Corp. is more volatile because the there’s a 70% range from the highest it normally goes to the lowest it can go over a period of time. XYZ Ltd on the other hand only has a 15% range.

Over a long period of time, say 10 years, you may earn a higher rate of return on ABC Corp. compared to XYZ Ltd. So your $10,000 investment in ABC Corp may turn out to be worth $500,000 in 10 years while your XYZ Ltd investment could only be $100,000.

When someone is asked to choose which investment they would prefer, one that gives you $500,000 in 10 years or $100,000 in 10 years without showing them the volatility, most people would choose ABC Corp.

However, there is a saying that volatility is only good, as long as it’s going up. What most people forget is that volatility also goes down. So they’re ok with high volatility, as long as they see their investment go up. But once it starts going down, they suddenly realize they don’t like volatility.

I’ve seen this happen several times and I know this as well from my own experience. Ever since the Financial Crisis of 2008, I have taken steps to reduce the volatility of my client’s portfolios. In some cases, the volatility of a client’s portfolio is half to less than half of the general market. So if the market is up 10%, their portfolio may only be up 5%. But if the market is down -20%, their portfolio may only be down -10%, sometime less.

This eliminates the need to keep a close eye on the market every day and helps my clients sleep better at night knowing their investment is somewhat safer than the gloom and doom you hear from the media about the stock market.

Of course, there is no guarantee this will always be the case, as we have all learned from 2008, if all hell breaks loose, there is no safe place to hide other than being in 100% cash. But by the time you hear about it in the news, it’s probably too late to do anything other than wait.

What happened in 2015?

The Canadian market (S&P/TSX) was basically down the whole 2015. Down -11.81% for the year.

Because of the drop in oil prices, it dragged the Canadian dollar down with it since we are a major oil exporter. You may find it confusing as to why gas prices is still high even though oil prices is down. While Canada is an oil exporter, we do not refine the oil into gasoline. It has to be transported to the US or other countries where it is refined and turned into gasoline and then sold back to Canada in US Dollar. Since the US Dollar is high, our gas prices still remains high.

Most equity funds invested in the Canadian market was either flat or down in 2015. If your Canadian investment did better than -11.81%, your investment did well even if it went negative since you didn’t lose as much. Even if your return on your Canadian based investment was -5%, then it means that your fund manager was doing his or her job protecting your wealth.

Consequently, the US market (S&P 500) was flat for the year, returning only 0.69% in 2015. However, most global, international and U.S. equity funds did very well. Some even returning over 15% in 2015. You may think your fund manager did really well. However, you have to remember that the Canadian Dollar went down -15% against the US Dollar in 2015. You would have made 15% return on your fund even if it was all invested in cash.

Funds that are invested internationally or in the US have to convert your Canadian Dollar investment into US Dollars before they can invest it. Then it is converted back into Canadian Dollar when it is sold.

There are basically two ways a fund invests in the US or International markets. One is called Hedged where they buy options to remove or reduce the currency fluctuation in your fund. The other is Unhedged, where there is no protection on currency fluctuation on the funds.

So your Unhedged investment in an American fund would probably have made around 10 to 18% in 2015 just because of the exchange rate. If you happen to have a Hedged American Fund, your return would probably be flat. This is not necessarily mean your fund manager is good or bad, it’s just something they have no control over.

2016

So what can we expect in 2016? Probably more of the same as 2015. Some economist and fund managers say that we may see the Canadian market start to bounce back since it was one of the worst performing market in 2015. This was due mostly to the low price of oil. Alberta is the province that’s hurting the most as it lost a lot of jobs because of that.

Some report say we may be in a bear market this year, while others say the economy is strong. As always, it’s better to ignore the noise in the market and make sure you have a portfolio that is properly allocated to your situation.

The recent report states that Canadian credit card debt is rising, with an average debt load of $3,610. That’s not very good.

While interest rates are still low, rising home prices makes mortgage balances higher as well. Which will take the average Canadian a long time to pay off that mortgage. Basically, not very good news if you’re in debt.

Meanwhile, reported inflation is 2%, but a report came out today that the cost of vegetables went up 26.2% last year. I don’t know about you, but the way prices are rising now, it doesn’t feel like the cost to live in Vancouver is only up 2%. MSP premiums alone went up by 4.17% compared to 2015.

The government reported inflation or CPI is what the government uses to determine how much your CCP, OAS, GIS and other government benefits goes up to. But the best way to determine inflation is to look at what you spend your money on.

My advice to my clients this year is to make sure they pay off their debts and mortgages while the interest rates are low. That way, you don’t get caught off guard if interest rates suddenly have to go up. At this low interest rate environment, the money lent to you by the banks is practically free money to buy your home. Don’t waste this opportunity by using the money to buy unnecessary things. Pay it off as fast as possible.

If you have some credit card debts, you may even want to consider consolidating your debts into one with low interest payments.

Finally, keep your expenses low and save any extra dollar you can. Make sure you have a lot of cash or emergency fund saved up. In case we do see a bear market somewhere, this could be a great opportunity to buy up some good bargains.